BY THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES AND THE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS. China is the world's fourth largest economy, but its per capita income is ranked around lOOth in the world-the first "poor" global economic superpower in history.

COMPLEX,CONTRADICTIORY, CONFUSING. China's emergence on the world stage will be one of the most momentous-and chaL-Lenging-deveLopments of the 21 st century.

How China will deveLop-both internaLLy and in its relations with the rest of the worLd-remains a great unknown for policy makers and the public alike. It is this uncertainty that raises questions about China's intentions and future path-and the impLications for the United States, Asia, and the gLobaL community.

China's remarkable growth has the potential to expand the size of the global economy, and with it globaL wealth, more than any other nation in history. However, China could also cause huge competitive problems for the United States and other more advanced countries. Or China could coLLapse under the weight of its own domestic chaLLenges. SimiLarLy, China's more proactive gLobaL engagement and rapid modernization of its military may Lead it to become a responsible and productive gLobaL citizen. Or China could use its newfound influence to confront and undermine the interests of the United States and other powers, and chaLLenge international norms. Will China's rise result in a net economic and security benefit, or wiLL it be a zero-sum game?

List of Illustrations

Preface

1 Summary and Overview:

  Meeting the China Challenge

2 China's Domestic Economy:

Continued Growth or Collapse?

3 China's Domestic Transformation:

Democratization or Disorder?

4 China in the World Economy:

Opportunity or Threat?

5 China's Foreign and Security Policy:

Partner or Rival?

6 Conclusion:

Toward a New United States-China Relationship

Notes

Authors

Organizations

Acknowledgements

Advisory Committee

Index